Interesting Update from Amir at GO Coaching...

We created a long-form PowerPoint on this at the beginning of 2025 and are sharing Amir’s updated numbers here. This is a significant part of what I’m so excited about in the future: volume is about to increase with demand. We are so far off our all-time highs that those still in the business to support that volume are!

Fewer Loan Officers. More Production. That’s the Shift.

This chart tells a story most people miss at first glance.

From 2021 to 2026, the number of licensed residential loan officers collapses — from roughly 420,000 to ~65,000.
At the same time, total mortgage origination volume stabilizes and begins to recover, moving from ~$1.5T back toward ~$2.3T.

That means one thing:

Average production per loan officer has exploded.

What’s actually happening

  • In 2021, $4.44T spread across ~420K LOs = ~$10.6M per LO

  • By 2026, ~$2.28T spread across ~65K LOs = ~$35M per LO

That’s more than a 3× increase in per-officer production in just five years.

This isn’t a temporary anomaly. It’s a structural shift:

  • Fewer, more professional operators

  • Better tech leverage

  • Higher client concentration

  • Less “tourist” capacity in the industry

What happens next if volume only grows 5% per year?

Here’s the non-obvious insight.

Even if total mortgage volume only grows at 5% annually, average production keeps rising sharply — because capacity doesn’t come back the way people expect.

Assume:

  • Loan officer count stays flat (or grows very slowly)

  • Volume grows at just 5% per year

Simple math (directionally correct):

  • Year 0: $2.28T ÷ 65K ≈ $35M per LO

  • Year 5: $2.28T × 1.28 ≈ $2.9T total volume

  • $2.9T ÷ 65K ≈ $44–45M per LO

That’s another 25–30% increase in per-officer production — without a boom, without refis, and without rate miracles.

The takeaway most people are missing…

This is not a “when rates drop” story.

This is a power-law industry reset:

  • The middle hollowed out

  • The top got stronger

  • Average productivity permanently stepped up

In the next cycle, success won’t come from doing more loans —
it will come from controlling better decisions, better advice, and better leverage per client.

The era of the $10–15M LO is over.
The era of the $40–50M LO is just getting started.