Really Great Breakdown of the Big Beautiful Bill

A Referee's Take on the Big, Beautiful Bill - July 11, 2025

🔍 Key supporting data & points

  • The House has already passed this major tax bill by a large margin (357-70), suggesting bipartisan momentum.

  • The bill includes:

    • Making individual tax cuts from the 2017 TCJA permanent (currently set to expire in 2026).

    • Restoring full R&D expensing instead of amortization (a boost to business investment).

    • Addressing bonus depreciation phaseouts.

  • The bill’s total estimated impact is over $4 trillion in tax cuts, though dynamic scoring suggests it pays for itself via growth.

  • While a Fed rate cut might be a near-term market catalyst, long-term corporate profitability (and therefore stock valuations) hinges more on fiscal policy like this.

  • Historical evidence suggests that tax policy tends to have a bigger long-term market impact than modest rate changes.